By Kato Mivule, D.Sc. | A Review of Sloane (2026)’s “Predicted”
Abstract
In this essay, I review Sloane’s (2026) Predicted: How AI Is Restructuring Social Life and consider what insights it offers for Human-Centric AI (HCAI) and pragmatic approaches to AI adoption and ethics. Sloane steps outside the doom vs hype debate and examines prediction itself, framing AI as social infrastructure that people build, use, and reshape. I find her analysis strongest on accountability, transparency, and fairness, and her remedies sound in direction, especially using AI as a transparent tool for narrow tasks. Her ideas still need practical tools, like the right to challenge AI decisions, to give people real participatory power. Yet still, her thesis is even more clear and timely; AI isn’t fate, it’s social infrastructure we can reshape.

Image Source: Amazon, “Predicted”
HCAI Working Framework: The Human-Centric AI (HCAI) framework holds that AI should strengthen human abilities, not replace them. It judges AI against eight core principles: transparency, human agency, fairness, privacy, safety, accountability, inclusiveness, and well-being. The framework does not treat these principles as empty slogans. It asks two practical questions of any AI system in use: do people still keep real control over it, and does it meet a genuine, proven need in society [2]?
Pragmatic Approach: Pragmatism draws on Charles Peirce’s Pragmatic Maxim, which holds that the meaning of an idea lies in the practical effects we can expect it to have. To understand an idea, we ask what difference it would make in practice. Peirce also held that knowledge is never final. Truth is what careful, shared inquiry would settle on over time, so every conclusion stays open to correction as new evidence emerges [3]. For AI, this means judging systems and principles by the effects they actually have once in use, rather than by how closely they follow a fixed set of rules, and correcting course whenever the evidence calls for it.
Concerning the Predictive Model
Sloane (2026) begins by arguing that AI’s most significant effect is not any single application but a quiet restructuring of society around foretelling, which she calls the prediction paradigm. Predictive systems now sit inside hiring, healthcare, lending, and everyday coordination, so engaging with them has become a condition of access to core institutions, and opting out is rarely realistic. Treating these systems as natural or inevitable, she contends, obscures the people and interests shaping them and hands computer scientists outsized authority over social questions. Sloane rejects both technological determinism and the popular “sociotechnical” label, which she believes ranks the technical above the social. She reframes AI as a social arrangement and claims a firm role for social science expertise in governing it [1a].
“…The promises of AI’s oracular power have turned prediction into a logic for structuring social life. This is a dangerous proposition. It implies that AI is always necessary or even inevitable and diverts attention from the social forces shaping ideas around this technology in the first place. AI systems are not natural phenomena that happen to us. They are collective expressions of society…”, Pages 2.
From an HCAI standpoint, the diagnosis is strongest where it removes the black-box explanation; if AI is a social arrangement, harms trace back to identifiable choices rather than opaque mathematics, and legitimate expertise extends beyond computer scientists. Pragmatically, three questions stay open. Framing AI as a collective expression of society could spread responsibility thin unless specific actors are named. By stressing that people can’t avoid AI, she leaves open why hospitals often choose tools like early warnings for sepsis, a life-threatening infection, because they genuinely help. Sloane rejects the ‘sociotechnical’ label for ranking the technical above the social, yet her case for social science risks simply reversing that ranking, which sits awkwardly with her claim that everyone is an AI expert. The challenge for leadership is to treat every predictive system as a negotiable institutional choice rather than infrastructure to be accepted, and should state plainly who owns its decisions, who can contest them, and what non-AI pathway remains.
Concerning the Opaqueness of AI
Sloane (2026) then argues that the “black box” of AI is less a mathematical mystery than a social one. The underlying computations may resist reverse engineering, but the design assumptions about human behavior and social order built into these systems can be identified and examined. Two assumptions dominate; cognitivism, which models machines on the human mind, and anthropomorphism, which stretches that analogy into personhood and feeds both utopian promises and existential fears, such as those voiced by AI doomers about the end of humanity. She shows that users routinely read causation into outputs that rest only on correlation, which gives prediction an oracle-like authority. Because prediction also depends on a socially constructed, linear view of time, Sloane concludes that everyone takes part in building the black box [1b].
“…AI cognitivism and anthropomorphism also reliably bring up a long- lasting fear shared across many cultures: that intelligent machines will soon be sentient artificial persons with superhuman powers. This fear is built and sustained by well- established narrative tropes that oscillate between utopia (“We are going to have so little work to do that we will need universal basic income!”) and dystopia (“The robots will take our jobs and then eradicate humanity!”) …” Page 28.
Measured against HCAI principles, Sloane’s analysis advances Transparency and Explainability by shifting scrutiny from opaque math to inspectable design premises. It’s warning that deployments seek either human compliance or unsupervised automation directly supports Human Agency and Control. Yet claiming that everyone co-creates the black box strains Accountability, since vendors and users hold unequal power. Pragmatically, rejecting anthropomorphism and existential panic keeps AI as an instrument and tool under human direction. The correlation critique, however, underweights practice; clinicians often use correlational risk scores knowingly, as screening aids. Sloane’s linear-time argument, is provocative and has real bite; AI assumes the future repeats the past, which many cultures reject and which breaks down when sudden change hits. Before trusting a predictive tool, leaders should examine what it assumes about people and whether its outputs are correlations being treated as causes.
Concerning AI as a Social Infrastructure
Sloane (2026) goes on to reason that AI now works like social infrastructure. Like roads or libraries, it shapes how people, money, and ideas move through society. Unlike a library, however, it is rarely built to bring people together or help them thrive. It is built instead to hit set targets and to automate work, getting more done with fewer people. She traces this thinking back to nineteenth-century statistics, which assumed society could be understood and managed through numbers. She notes that AI sorts people into categories and measures them against standards that often reflect the majority group, then turns these into fixed rules. People can usually push back on roads and other public systems, or find ways around them. With AI, the categories are hidden, so people such as insurance claimants cannot challenge how they have been sorted [1c].
“…AI is social infrastructure: It affects civic engagement, social interaction, and human flourishing, but it is typically not designed to promote these… Much like other infrastructures, the directionality in AI systems manifests in its design intention and its technical components. A central idea within AI design is optimization… AI’s directionality is embedded in the centrality of the objective function…”, Pages 43-47.
On HCAI terms, Sloane’s view strengthens Fairness by showing how “normal” is often defined by the majority and built into systems. It also shows a gap in Transparency and Accountability; people cannot challenge categories they cannot see. Pragmatically, her point that people can reshape infrastructure, as early online communities and fights against unfair racial labels show, keeps AI open to human change. However, treating AI as nearly closed may overlook existing tools, such as the letters US lenders must send explaining a denial. Yet still, leaders adopting AI should treat its categories like public rules, visible to the people being sorted and open to challenge.
Concerning AI as a Market Force
Sloane (2026) points out that AI is sold less as a tool than as a valuable asset, one whose promised future earnings justify huge company valuations even without current profits. This business rests on three beliefs. The first is that data is an endless natural resource. In reality, data comes from ordinary people going about daily life, and it depends on low-paid, often hidden workers, mostly in poorer countries, who clean and label it. The second is that a job can be automated, a judgment usually based on the social status of the people doing it rather than the real skill involved. The third is that machine predictions are more objective than human judgment, a belief that shrinks the room professionals have to decide for themselves [1d].
“…Additionally, AI is not something you can gain access to by going to a shop down the road. AI is an infrastructure that sits on top and inside of other infrastructures, such as platforms, servers, software, institutions, and processes… The business of AI, therefore, could be understood by framing AI as an asset— a resource that is controlled by an entity and from which future economic benefits are expected to flow back to that entity…” Page 63.
From a HCAI perspective, Sloane’s argument is strong on Fairness and Well-being. It shows AI’s costs falling on hidden data workers and on those whose jobs are labeled “low skill,” and it treats meaningful work and professional judgment as human needs worth protecting. Pragmatically, it grounds AI in money, labor, and energy rather than hype. However, its most useful point for Human Agency, that AI reshapes rather than replaces judgment, gets brief treatment, though that is where oversight can be designed. More importantly, before automating a job, leaders should ask who actually does the work, what skill it truly takes, and how much room for human judgment will remain.
Concerning the Burdens of AI
Sloane (2026) proceeds to discuss that AI’s true costs stay hidden because the companies that own and run it rarely pay them. Low-paid data workers abroad, communities living near energy-hungry data centers, and rural areas where farmland is being bought up all absorb costs that never appear on company books. When AI fails, the burden falls on the people harmed. Students wrongly flagged by unreliable AI-cheating detectors, for example, must prove their innocence, often with no clear way to appeal. She also faults the current focus on “bias,” which fixes problems through statistical adjustments that require sorting people into hidden categories. Even regulators and auditors, she warns, now address AI harms with the same prediction logic that produced them [1e].
“…AI harms are generally understood to be real damage to someone’s life or livelihood resulting from AI predictions… Victims of AI breakdowns carry the extraordinary burden of having to prove that there was an AI breakdown that directly caused their harm— and even if they do have evidence, mechanisms for recourse are not yet established. 17 AI breakdowns are characterized by the burden of proof and the barrier of appeal…”, Pages 86, 88.
On HCAI terms concerning the burdens of AI, Sloane’s clearest contribution is to Accountability. By naming the burden of proof and the barrier to appeal, it gives a precise, testable account of why harmed people lack recourse. It’s warning that bias fixes require sorting people into hidden categories also deepens Fairness and Privacy concerns. Pragmatically, the cheating-detector case is exactly the grounded evidence this lens values, with students lacking recourse, but are viewed as guilty until proved innocent. Before deploying AI, leaders should decide who pays the cost when it fails and give affected people a simple, real way to appeal.
Concerning AI Guardrails
Sloane (2026) contends that efforts to put guardrails around AI are held back by two patterns. The first is treating ethics as something to measure and compute, which shrinks moral questions into scoring how ethical a system is, as the self-driving car version of the trolley dilemma shows. The second is searching for one sweeping solution when AI’s effects depend on specific settings. She reviews how governments have responded; the EU’s risk-based rules, a patchwork of US state and local laws, and a federal shift from oversight toward deregulation. Accountability, she contends, works best when grounded in context, as with tools that tie AI answers to trusted local sources, and when companies open their systems to independent researchers [1f]
“…Some technical approaches to accountability in generative AI systems deliberately use sociality and contextuality. The aforementioned approach of retrieval- augmented generation (RAG) is a notable example, because it forces an LLM to ground its output generation in a predefined data corpus outside its training data… That corpus is typically context- specific…”, Page 126.
From an HCAI viewpoint, Sloane’s reasoning strengthens Accountability and Inclusiveness by arguing that oversight must involve the people in a given setting, not just checklists and scores. Its call for companies to open their systems to independent review supports Transparency. Practically, its preference for context-grounded tools, education, and audits over one grand fix fits the HCAI framework well. However, for nuance, warning against measured ethics may underestimate measurement’s role, since regulators and courts need evidence, they can check. And independent access still depends on company goodwill, with no enforcement mechanism. Moreover, leadership should build AI oversight around the people and settings a system affects, and open it to independent review, rather than relying on a single ethics score or compliance checklist.
Concerning Community in the Age of AI
In her closing chapter, Sloane (2026) observes that AI is now built into everyday life, and that its deepest effect is a collective shift toward prediction as the way society organizes itself. When a few people and systems claim to know the future, public deliberation, the everyday work of weighing different futures together, starts to look inefficient. Her solution is to treat AI as a social arrangement that people can reshape. She recommends using AI as a transparent instrument for narrow, well-defined tasks, as scientists do. She also calls for treating ethics as a social practice, strengthening audits with social science methods, and regulating AI providers as public utilities, all to widen who gets to shape AI [1g].
“…However, as we seek to stay together in the age of AI, we ought to reject the idea of one future and the deterministic power of prediction, and expand our embrace of serendipity, randomness, and sociality. Such a stance chips away at the idea that the future is solely an engineering problem. And it demands that people be put on a more equal footing to begin with— for example, by distributing resources and services fairly…” Page 142.
Judging by the HCAI perspective, the remedies Sloane recommends fit Transparency and Inclusiveness. The scientific-instrument model makes explainability a professional duty, and the public-utility framing could give Accountability real legal weight. Pragmatically, the turn to narrow, well-defined uses is the book’s most usable guidance for builders. The gap is implementation. The public-utility proposal needs a path through US federal regulators who, as Sloane noted, are retreating from oversight. And broad participation still lacks a named mechanism, such as community review boards or procurement rules, that a city council or company could adopt tomorrow. Yet still, a dilemma remains concerning audits with social science methods; Social science has its own measurement disputes and replication problems, and it depends on the same statistics and categories she criticizes in AI. However, leaders should use AI strategically, where tasks are narrow, data is well defined, and people set the context, and should keep decisions about shared futures in open human deliberation.
Reflections on the Roads We Build: AI as Social Infrastructure
AI as Social Infrastructure: Much of the public debate about AI is a contest of predictions. Doomers forecast catastrophe, and utopians forecast abundance. Sloane (2026) steps outside that contest. Instead of offering another forecast, she examines prediction itself; how it works, what assumptions are built into it, and how it has become a way of organizing society. Her central thesis is that AI is social infrastructure. It is built from social material; people’s data, the labor of data workers, and assumptions about how people behave. It runs through institutions and reshapes them in turn. Yet AI is often treated as a purely technical product, a view that profit rewards. Sloane shows how much this view hides, including low-paid labor, energy and water costs, and the burden that falls on people when systems fail. She is careful not to tell this as a story of villains. The turn toward prediction, she argues, is something everyone helps enact; the companies that build the tools, the institutions that buy them, the regulators who audit them narrowly, and the users who trust their outputs.
The Roads We Build: A city’s roads offer a useful illustration. Planners and builders lay the roads, and the roads decide where people can easily go. But roads are also shaped by use. When a route fails people, they wear their own shortcut across the grass, a “desire path,” and good planners eventually pave it. AI works in a similar way. It channels how people are sorted, hired, and served, yet it depends on everyday use to function, and that use can push back. The difference, as Sloane shows, is that AI’s routes are largely hidden. People cannot see the categories that sort them, must prove harm on their own, and often have nowhere to appeal. The power ordinary people hold over AI is therefore real but dormant. It becomes usable only through concrete tool; rights to see and contest decisions, procurement rules, collective bargaining, and local laws.
The Linear Time Mistake: Sloane also exposes a quieter assumption built into AI; that time runs in a straight line, so the future will follow neatly from the past. AI learns from yesterday’s data and assumes tomorrow will look much the same. Many cultures see time differently, as cycles of return and renewal, and real life is full of sudden changes that break old patterns. Weather forecasters offer a better model. They do not promise one fixed future. They give ranges and probabilities, such as a 60 percent chance of rain, and update them as conditions change. AI prediction rarely shows that kind of humility, yet it is increasingly trusted to decide who gets hired, treated, or approved.
The Call for the Return of the Humanities: Sloane’s call for “highly interdisciplinary teams” (p. 127) and for a revival of social science and humanities ideas (p. 143) rings true from inside the field. For decades, American education and the tech industry have prized STEM, and the later push to add the arts, known as STEAM, has struggled to take root, even though Steve Jobs famously credited Apple’s success to joining technology with the liberal arts and humanities. As a computer scientist, I have seen what this narrow focus costs; an industry that sidelines public participation, argues over distant doom or utopia, and overlooks the harms happening now. The full participation Sloane envisions needs the humanities, the arts, and the social sciences back at the table, alongside computer science rather than in place of it.
The Social Science Dilemma: Sloane’s call for social science expertise raises a fair question; does she simply replace one expert class with another [1g]? Read closely, she asks for a seat at the table, not ownership, and she insists that all of us are AI experts. Still, the risk is real. Social science has its own measurement debates and replication problems, and it relies on the same statistics and categories she criticizes in AI. Charles Peirce’s view of knowledge as a shared, self-correcting inquiry points to a better balance. No single discipline should own AI. Computer scientists, social scientists, practitioners, and affected communities each catch mistakes the others miss.
Creativity Inevitability and Randomness: Sloane’s closing call also connects with what I call creativity inevitability. On this view, creativity is a human constant. It runs from the first stone tools, through a Ugandan grandmother’s hand-woven Mukeka mats, to today’s AI, so new technology will keep emerging because people will keep creating [4]. At first glance this seems to clash with Sloane, who warns against treating AI as inevitable. In fact, the two views fit together. What Sloane rejects is inevitabilism; the corporate claim that a particular technology’s path is beyond human control. I reject that too. My proposed framework separates three layers; human creativity is inevitable, the path each technology takes are controllable, and how it is used must be accountable. Sloane’s call to reject one fixed future and to welcome serendipity, randomness, and sociality strengthens the second and third layers, since creativity thrives on the unexpected, not on straight-line forecasts. AI can play a small part here. It can support human creativity, but it cannot replace the chance encounters and open debate that Sloane values most.
Her final chapter, “Staying Together in the Age of AI,” responds to all of this. The aim is not to reject AI but to reclaim a shared say in how it is built and governed, rather than accept a single predicted future. She adds an important condition: for participation to mean anything, people must first stand on more equal footing, through fair access to resources and services.
Sloane (2026) remedies follow from the diagnosis:
- Use AI as a transparent instrument for narrow, well-defined tasks, the way scientists use and document their tools. This is her most practical guidance.
- Treat ethics as a social practice rather than a math problem.
- Strengthen audits by including the views of affected communities.
- Explore regulating AI providers as public utilities, much as societies regulate electricity and water for fair access and pricing.
Overall HCAI and Pragmatic Critique
Read as a whole, Sloane (2026) holds up well under both lenses, with clear limits. On HCAI terms, her strongest contributions are to Accountability, Transparency, and Fairness. She removes the “black box” excuse by showing that the assumptions behind AI can be traced. She names the burden of proof and the lack of appeal that harmed people face, and she shows how standards drawn from dominant groups become hidden rules. She also treats meaningful work, professional judgment, and public deliberation as human needs worth protecting, which speaks to Human Agency and Well-being. On pragmatic terms, she consistently treats AI as a human-made tool rather than a ghost or a force of nature. She rejects both doom and hype and grounds her claims in concrete cases, such as unreliable cheating detectors and hidden data work. The weaker points are practical. Saying that everyone co-creates AI can blur who is responsible when power is so unequal. Her critiques of correlation and of audits underplay how professionals often use risk scores knowingly, and how audits bring hidden harms to light. Her remedies are sound in direction, but they stop short of mechanisms a city council, agency, or company could adopt tomorrow, such as community review boards, procurement rules, or rights to contest decisions. Her clearest practical guidance is the scientific-instrument model: use AI for narrow, well-defined tasks, with transparent methods and people setting the context. Overall, the book offers a strong diagnosis and a sound direction, and it leaves the detailed building work to practitioners, policymakers, and communities.
References
[1] Mona Sloane, “Predicted: How AI Is Restructuring Social Life”, University of California Press, Kindle Version, 2026, ISBN: 978-0520416369.
[1a] Ibid., pp. Pages 1-19.
[1b] Ibid., pp. Pages 22-41.
[1c] Ibid., pp. Pages 43–61.
[1d] Ibid., pp. Pages 62–80.
[1e] Ibid., pp. Pages 82–99.
[1f] Ibid., pp. Pages 100–127.
[1g] Ibid., pp. Pages 129–143.
[2] Mivule, Kato “A Review of AI Engineering: A Human-Centric Perspective,” Mivuletech, Apr. 19, 2026. [Online]. Available: https://mivuletech.wordpress.com/2026/04/19/a-review-of-ai-engineering-a-human-centric-perspective/
[3] R. Burch, “Charles Sanders Peirce,” The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, E. N. Zalta and U. Nodelman, Eds., Spring 2024 ed. [Online]. Available: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/peirce/
[4] Mivule, Kato. “Creativity and Innovation Are Inevitable: Why the Anti-AI Movement Will Inevitably Fail.” Mivuletech, 23 Aug. 2026, Available: https://mivuletech.wordpress.com/2026/08/23/creativity-and-innovation-are-inevitable-why-the-anti-ai-movement-will-inevitably-fail/
Image Source: Amazon, “Predicted”
Commentary by Kato Mivule
An AI-Human Collaboration






